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The greater depression.
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JimmySwill
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 22, 2008 9:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Greyfaced, I'm with you up to the auto companies. Not that I don't think the management and in some sense, the UAW management, doesn't deserve it. It's only I am not sure they can cross that bridge without doing more harm than good at this particular time.

Ultimately, the management got the companies in this place. I think the management needs to be shaken up and many replaced. However, I worry auto bankruptcy might in the end cost the US more than a bailout loan with strict terms for restructuring. These companies are the head of a massive chain of jobs, pensions, etc. Auto bankruptcy might simply be too great of a shock to the system at this time. I don't want to punish employees and the broad chain of suppliers for the errors of short-sighted auto management, particularly at this moment. I think there's a time to squeeze them, but I'm worried BK might be squeezing too tight. Ideologically, I am all for and auto BK. Practically, I'm not so sure.
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Dag
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 24, 2008 11:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I fully support Burger King too.
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JimmySwill
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 27, 2009 5:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, I was wrong about the Dow being at 5800 at inauguration. However, we are at 7060 today, 2-28-09. That's down 38% from when I started this thread. I think we'll dip into the 6000's, but not stay too long.

Market predictions are fun. Maybe I should charge institutions a lot of money for these perspectives. The Swill Report.
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greyfaced
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 28, 2009 4:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think we will go below 6k like I said elsewhere. When GM declares chapter 11 it could be really bad, and if the quarterly report that follows brings bad news, well things could get really really bad. I'm not sure that's anything I have a problem with.

I think my favorite prediction right now is that the Swiss banking system will come under increased pressure to open the books. Couple that a few big names in American business getting caught with their pants down, and financial systems are gonna have a rocky time. But, I think this great depression is mostly attacking "the new rich", not sure about that exactly. Don't get me wrong people are suffering, but I don't think we are going to see soup lines and the kinds of civil disorder we have seen with other large market problems. That's why Edwards got target for talking about his 2 Americas thing.... Ok, that last one was a nice bit of conspiracy joking....but is it???? Heh.
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JimmySwill
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 02, 2009 7:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Swill report was right. We closed at 6760 today, 3-02-09. We are sitting right in the middle of history.

You could be right, greyfaced. We might get to that 5800 I predicted for inauguration, but probably more of a slow bleed if we do.

I see a small rally tomorrow or the next, but then putter putter again... Still too much debt and crazy liability, and I don't think we've passed the peak job loss point.
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greyfaced
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 07, 2009 9:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ok, so some people say that the dow is only 30 stocks; sure facts are facts, but what about the Wilshire 4500? It hasn't done too well; I know how it's done thanks to google finance. It's also worth while to do a little thinking about the Thrift Savings Plan, and the MSCI Eafe.

Check them all out if you think the stock market is doing well. The activity on shorts in the msci eafe are neat to look at; they tell an interesting story as well.

The whole idea of the Thrift Savings Plan, and it value at 200 billion+, being the 401k of federal government employees is kinda crazy.

Lot's of things for you to do some looking into there if you want. Wilshire as an index that drops the S and P 500 is kinda cool to me.
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greyfaced
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 13, 2009 6:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jon Stewart might just make the top of my Moyers/Stewart presidential ticket if he keeps doing interviews like the one he did with Cramer. Hell yes.

Stewart/Moyers '12.

gotta get that shirt made....while Moyers is still alive.
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JimmySwill
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 13, 2009 8:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

That was incredible.

So crazy that a comedy show has become a media watch-dog.
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greyfaced
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 28, 2009 8:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm gonna be weird and now predict that the dow will be near 10k by the end of the year. The problem will at that point be unemployment, and the bifurcated economic situation of the US, which will start taking center stage in some circles. Obama will be stressing some sort of public works and or education policy in a long term way.
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greyfaced
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 28, 2009 8:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I was struck when I talked to a friend Mike N. about his reflections on his stay in Norway. I asked him about what Norway was doing better than the US and what the US was doing better than Norway. I understand that his observations where rather casual, but he had a lot to say that was positive about life in Norway, and had nothing to say about where we were doing better socially, even when pressed.... Believe me I pressed him, because I'm unable to escape my latent nationalism to the point where I can accept that we aren't doing anything better than the Norwegians, but frankly I got nothing from him about what we were doing better. Even in terms of freedom of expression....
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JimmySwill
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 28, 2009 9:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agree we will be near 10k. I also agree that unemployment will be the drag on things. In a sense, I think these CDS liabilities were so immense that they could never be realized. They could however, destroy confidence in the financial system entirely. Like a run on the banks. That's my opinion, anyway.

Here is an interesting article from 1999. Check out what Senator Byron L. Dorgan says: "'I think we will look back in 10 years' time and say we should not have done this but we did because we forgot the lessons of the past, and that that which is true in the 1930's is true in 2010. I wasn't around during the 1930's or the debate over Glass-Steagall. But I was here in the early 1980's when it was decided to allow the expansion of savings and loans. We have now decided in the name of modernization to forget the lessons of the past, of safety and of soundness.''

Yeah, Norway is doing some good. I talked to another Norwegian a couple of months ago. He seemed to think the US was a dirty but fascinating experiment. He thought our country need to "grow up" a bit, however. -I kind of agree. We are way too uptight about a lot of social things. It's retarded more than 1% of our population is in jail. That's the highest incarceration rate in the world. Dictatorships included. To me, that means something isn't working.
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Gregory Vrill
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 28, 2009 12:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hmm.

Not to piss all over Norway? I'm sure it's great.

Quick, name three great Norwegian scientists or artists. In the history of, uh, history.

You probably can for England, France, Germany, Italy, the US- Italy for christ's sake. Maybe you can for China and Japan too. If we add writers and thinkers, you might be able to do the same for Ireland, India, and Russia, but still not Norway, am I rite?

...

Today, there are exactly three famous Norwegian neuroscientists. That's about one hundred times less than the US. My point is that we're still dominant in the sciences and the arts. Hollywood and Harvard. Hate on 'em all you want, but 'Norwegian' is not the lingua franca of the scientific world.
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JimmySwill
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 28, 2009 10:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agree the US does many things right for sure Greg. I guess neuroscience is one of them. I'm not US-bashing in general. I love my ol' US of A. I just think we could take a few lessons from others that seem to do a few things a bit more effectively. I don't want to move to Norway. I do however, want to have less than 1% of the population in jail. Each prisoner costs about $40k a year. There's a lot of money being wasted by some misguided policies.

I really like a lot about the US. However, I have a few things I'd like improved.
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greyfaced
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 28, 2009 11:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks for the burst of nationalist zeal and irrational thought Greg. I'm not sure where it was coming from, but that's ok.

You know there aren't that many Norwegiens and yet somehow they seem to do alright...

Quick Greg, name 3 great American cricket players....

I did try to think of some great Norwegians, but when I looked them up afterwards they were all Swedes....hrm. Don't blame me though I got a really crappy American education. I mean for crying out loud seriously Americans are rather behind on a lot of issues...

Anywho, have you been to Norway Greg? Or Sweden? Or Denmark? Hell even Holland seemed like a great frickin place to live.

I was just pointing out that Mike had a hard time, actually he failed, coming up with something he thought we were doing better at as a society...

I will say that I think our independent election of the executive branch is an important feature of our government. I think it's so lame that parliamentary elections weigh so heavily on peoples desire for a specific Prime Minister or President, that they often vote for a party just for the Prime Minister, and not at all for the person who is going to represent them in Parliament. But, hey, I've actually talked to people about that, and I don't think Mike had really gotten into that. He was just talking about how great it is there.... I'm sure it has it's downsides. Jeesh, last time I'll post what Mike says on here, the Yeoldegaming fascist Greg will flip out and start spouting that crap about how a minority of Americans do very well, and share the wealth of their talents within that minorities social being. Hell it used to be true that Americans made the best cars, and computers, and rockets, and well.......to think that we haven't been trending towards the negative seems naive.

But, yada.
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greyfaced
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 28, 2009 11:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rehashing the conversation with Mike in my head I did remember just now that there was one thing He said we did better. We cook better. He said our food dominates theirs, and that does strangely count for a lot in my book.
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