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The greater depression.
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JimmySwill
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Joined: 02 Jan 2008
Posts: 1390
Location: Torsche

PostPosted: Sun Sep 14, 2008 11:06 pm    Post subject: The greater depression. Reply with quote

It's 11:05 PM, 09-14-08. Me thinks the U.S. financial system is about to tank.

That's all.
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Gregory Vrill
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Joined: 06 Jun 2008
Posts: 1021

PostPosted: Mon Sep 15, 2008 3:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeah, we shoulda priced Wayfarers in Euros, not dollars.

Bonjour Wayfarers! Nous avons les libres!
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Cyndre
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Joined: 22 Jul 2008
Posts: 189
Location: La Badlandsa - So Nice!

PostPosted: Sat Sep 20, 2008 8:28 pm    Post subject: idk Reply with quote

As long as foreigners keep buying the bonds we print without demanding a huge increase in interest we'll be fine in the short term.

Long-term, though, running $500 billion annual deficits, with a targeted cumulative deficit of $2.3 trillion by like 2018, is not good. It puts all kinds of inflationary pressures on the economy, but these pressures aren't driven by current success, they are driven by past overspending (foreigners will have massive amounts of US denominated currency - due to all the bonds they've purchased in the past - with which to purchase things, so this will drive prices up).

I wrote a haiku if that helps:

Fall into winter,

My love of and hope for home

slide; relocation.
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JimmySwill
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 20, 2008 9:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't know what the other stuff meant, but the haiku really straightened things out for me.
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Cyndre
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Joined: 22 Jul 2008
Posts: 189
Location: La Badlandsa - So Nice!

PostPosted: Mon Sep 22, 2008 6:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

JimmySwill wrote:
I don't know what the other stuff meant, but the haiku really straightened things out for me.


You posted stuff about the US financial system. I was talking about the root cause of the "about to tank" part.

Maybe this explains it better:

http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/18/diamond-and-kashyap-on-the-recent-financial-upheavals/
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JimmySwill
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Location: Torsche

PostPosted: Fri Sep 26, 2008 9:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

So it's 9-26-08.

Yesterday Washington Mutual collapsed and House Republicans stopped the bail-out agreement made by both parties in the Senate and the Bush administration.

So far, Bear Stearns, Lehman Bros., AIG, Freddie Mack, and Fanny May have been casualties of this sub-prime debacle. The Fed bailed out all but Lehman Bros. -Morgan Stanley scooped up Washington Mutual.

My guess is the real danger now is Market panic. Maybe they will suspend trading after a big Dow drop today?

That will make for an interesting Presidential debate tonight. -That is, if McCain shows up.
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Gregory Vrill
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 26, 2008 7:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wow it would be so weird if McCain won the election.

Anyway, good thing I'm several thousand in debt and not, you know, playing the stock market. I guess.

...

Eh, time to rock. Making a new mix. Getting closer to actually making that website for larger-scale distribution. You know what? "Land of Confusion" by Genesis is kind of a great song.
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Cyndre
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Joined: 22 Jul 2008
Posts: 189
Location: La Badlandsa - So Nice!

PostPosted: Tue Sep 30, 2008 8:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Greg when did you start to make music? Send a disc my way if you make one.

Nothing else to say re: the market, we'll all be paying for whatever happens for the rest of our lifetime.

maybe they'll find some more oil in iraq that we can sell

EDIT: I've fixed Greg's name. -Jimmy
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Gregory Vrill
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 30, 2008 10:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm not making new tracks myself, I'm just using some software to mix mp3s. It's kind of my new favorite thing. Been doing it since summer started, and it's tons of fun. Keeps parties rocking too, apparently.

I've posted a few on here, in the Staff Only section, but I'm about to make myself a full-on website and post them on there too. There's people who want them, and I'm happy to provide.

It's all sorts of stuff, but it's all dance music. Pop, hiphop, techno, drum and bass, whatever I can find that's got a beat. I've got like 12 made and I'm working on three more.

I use software called MixMeister- so easy to use. You can get a free demo copy online, and the full version is only like $50. Taught myself how to use it in one evening, it's that simple.

I'm about to get back to it. I spend probably at least an hour a night playing around with it.
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JimmySwill
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 12:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

So it's 10-10-08. It seems the U.S. financial system did tank.

Maybe I'm in the wrong line of work. Confused
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Gregory Vrill
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 1:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It ain't just us.

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews/idUSL930017420081009

(Short version: Finland's having bank troubles too.)

Simply amazing, the whole thing, start to not-yet-finished. I hear they're looking for scientists in Berlin...
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JimmySwill
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 21, 2008 3:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So at 9/14 when I started this thread, the Dow was at 11420. Now it's at 7577, down 34%.

I was right, the economy tanked! -Not that I was ahead of most economists.

Anyway, I figure I might as well make another prediction: I predict in two months just before inauguration, the Dow will be around 5800, down another 25% or so.

I also predict the 700 billion bailout will be seen as fruitless, and that they threw good money at bad. This isn't a very wild gamble though, is it? Personally, I believe it would have been better just to give every American taxpayer an equal slice of it. Something around 4-5k. Not that I am naive enough to think it was a possibility.
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Gregory Vrill
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 21, 2008 8:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

No dude, this was all about poor usage of money from start to finish. The people who are good with money? Weren't involved directly with this at all. So why would we give money back to people who've now proven to be irresponsible with it?

Better spend 700 B$ on one of those Sim City arcologies that can launch into space and save us from eco/atomo/asteroido/dino-apocalypse.
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JimmySwill
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Location: Torsche

PostPosted: Sat Nov 22, 2008 1:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Folks making loans to people who couldn't pay them back. That's where the trouble started. Home owners were idiots, but they didn't lobby the government to relax regulations enabling them to get bad loans. Don't confuse predator with prey, even if they are both fools.

Giving money to institutions that handled it recklessly, only to try to fill the huge holes they've made. -Not a good plan. Especially when the value of the derivative risks is much greater than 700 billion. The treasury is currently trying to patch up risky investment schemes (fingers in the dike), not addressing the fundamental issues that started the cascade on these over-extended risks that should have never been allowed to be made in the first place. Even when the bailout money is gone, people will still be foreclosing like crazy. It's a money pit.
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greyfaced
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Joined: 06 Jun 2008
Posts: 509
Location: Pleroma, Oregon

PostPosted: Sat Nov 22, 2008 8:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I will say that I don't think the stock market will be that low by inauguration. This whole experiment in socialism has been back asswards. Nobody was responsible and the government has done a horrible job spending a crap load of cash, I guess they wanted to know what it felt like to invest unwisely first hand.

I must say I said the major issue was with liquidity, and it seems it was and is the main problem. Nothing has been done to address this.

Liquidity is fundamentaly addressed by putting cash in the hands of consumers, who give it to businesses..... As we have seen if you give it to corporations in a time of crisis they keep it, or use it to buy other banks... I'm very unhappy with how this whole crisis has been addressed so far.

It's a bunch of crap. Address the imbalance in taxation on income, address the global situation with banking and disclosure, and address the societal need for credit and the abuses of the banks in their provision.

I think Swill and I are on the center right of this issue strangely enough.....

I hope auto companies are declaring chapter 11 soon, and I hope the government helps them through it by helping to strengthen the institutions and creating confidence.

It's all a confidence game, and absolutely nothing has been done to increase confidence....
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