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Market up again
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Cyndre
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Joined: 22 Jul 2008
Posts: 189
Location: La Badlandsa - So Nice!

PostPosted: Fri Jan 02, 2009 10:31 pm    Post subject: Market up again Reply with quote

Apparently the market closed over 9,000 today.

That's pretty remarkable considering that it had been as low as 7,500 or so a few weeks ago? And 8k just recently.

I think it shows the resilience. We've had nothing but bad news (besides Amazon's "best holiday season" announcement where they discussed nothing about margins, LOL), and the market is still moving sharply upwards. I'm not sure how many shorts can really be in the market anymore (I forget if the SEC banned shorting, and, if so, when that ban expires).

I really wish I had disposable income to invest Sad I'm so deadset on saving for a house that I just didn't want to put money in the market (since that would be short term investing but house money is long term investing). I was telling everyone I knew to buy when the market was at 7.5 and also at 8k (though I was much more nervous about making a short term profit at 8k. Turns out I didn't have to be so concerned).
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Chickens, page 425 of Wayfarers, is missing a key rule. If you roll a natural 6, you roll again and keep a cumulative total until you do not roll a 6. Rolled a 13 to hit, 19 damage, etc. Helps the trash talk.
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JimmySwill
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Joined: 02 Jan 2008
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Location: Torsche

PostPosted: Sat Jan 03, 2009 12:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeah, we did so a few weeks ago. Rock bottom prices! Still rock bottom, but I'm thinking it'll be a good thing 10 years out.

My prediction is that the next bull phase will be ridiculous. I think it will be driven by cheaper energy. Cheaper energy = more productivity. Our modes of energy harvesting and use are so crazy and inefficient, there is a phenomenal room for growth.
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Cyndre
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Joined: 22 Jul 2008
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Location: La Badlandsa - So Nice!

PostPosted: Sat Jan 03, 2009 6:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm not sure. A lot of the explosive growth in value was driven first by "creative accounting" (i.e. Enron, Worldcom) and then by games with securities (CDSs, etc.).

I think that the next bull phase might actually be sustainable and non-explosive.
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Chickens, page 425 of Wayfarers, is missing a key rule. If you roll a natural 6, you roll again and keep a cumulative total until you do not roll a 6. Rolled a 13 to hit, 19 damage, etc. Helps the trash talk.
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JimmySwill
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Joined: 02 Jan 2008
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Location: Torsche

PostPosted: Sat Jan 03, 2009 10:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cyndre wrote:
I think that the next bull phase might actually be sustainable and non-explosive.


No that's exactly what I am saying. By ridiculous, I mean I think it will be very large and sustained. -Maybe ridiculous isn't the best word. I just like to use it.
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Ars Mysteriorum
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Joined: 27 Sep 2008
Posts: 339
Location: Sioux Falls, SD, USA

PostPosted: Sun Jan 04, 2009 12:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

JimmySwill wrote:
-Maybe ridiculous isn't the best word. I just like to use it.


You already know my response to this.
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greyfaced
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Joined: 06 Jun 2008
Posts: 509
Location: Pleroma, Oregon

PostPosted: Sat Jan 31, 2009 9:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeah the market has been doing great....

I vote no confidence.

It may be helping us in some strange way I don't understand, as far as the problems that other countries are experiencing in their economies. The dollar is doing better, and I would assume our trade position is. Our trade position may be causing major havoc with the Chinese. No offense against the Chinese mind you, but the trade imbalance, and the monetary policies may take a more prominent position in policy now for the Chinese themselves. This hasn't been an economic war, but they may realize that they are more susceptible to global trade movements than they had imagined.

Just some musings as I go off to bed.
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JimmySwill
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 31, 2009 10:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Chinese have been practicing protectionism much more than us. Many of our goods have very high tariffs coming in to China. The tariff on foreign cars is about 100%. GQ's brother bought a BMW and it cost twice as much USD as it does here due the the additional tax. At the same time they have built knock-offs of many foreign cars ignoring IP. These look like the same exact car, but just have a different symbol on it. Not to mention their unwillingness to float the yuan has made it cheaper for us to manufacture in China.

I don't think we've been rushing to pressure the Chinese on this as many US business leaders profited from the imbalance. They could replace US manufacturing with Chinese and show nice profits, getting them nice bonuses. All the while these leaders could talk about global trade and disparage protectionism, even though it was protectionism that was working in their favor. Just not ours.

But yes, at the same time the Chinese grew very dependent on this relationship as well. -Unfortunately, eventually people that don't make much can't buy much. Increasing personal debt worked for a while, but value in a service based economy can evaporate pretty fast. We need to start creating things again.
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greyfaced
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 01, 2009 12:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

What I ultimately mean is that perhaps governments around the world are taking global trade a bit more seriously, and the Chinese might be sitting at the table with more of a desire to work together. Maybe, thats a sunshine and roses view of things, but I think things are moving towards a more responsible global view on trade and economic ties than has been the custom for the last...forever.
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wolfie
Ecclesia


Joined: 21 Dec 2008
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 01, 2009 2:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

You guys must be kidding.

Buy in on the kool aid, did you?
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greyfaced
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Joined: 06 Jun 2008
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 01, 2009 3:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

No, not kidding.
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Ars Mysteriorum
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Joined: 27 Sep 2008
Posts: 339
Location: Sioux Falls, SD, USA

PostPosted: Sun Feb 01, 2009 2:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
What I ultimately mean is that perhaps governments around the world are taking global trade a bit more seriously, and the Chinese might be sitting at the table with more of a desire to work together. Maybe, thats a sunshine and roses view of things, but I think things are moving towards a more responsible global view on trade and economic ties than has been the custom for the last...forever.


Mind you, all conflicts begin and end with people sitting at tables. Even if China is willing to negotiate, I think their terms will be harsh and leave very little room for play, as such is the culture concerning outsiders.

Then again, a lot remains to be seen. Who knows what will happen in the next years?
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greyfaced
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Joined: 06 Jun 2008
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Location: Pleroma, Oregon

PostPosted: Mon Feb 02, 2009 1:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Mind you, all conflicts begin and end with people sitting at tables.


Good point. I said I might have presented a bit too much sunshine and roses.

I had a funny mental image of diplomats playing musical chairs and tables trying to figure out whether they were siting down to start a war or end one.

Clinton sits down with Kadafi and says, "where were we again?"
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JimmySwill
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Joined: 02 Jan 2008
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Location: Torsche

PostPosted: Tue Feb 10, 2009 2:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is a pretty interesting insight on the financial crisis.

Make sure you watch until about 2:10, that's where it's most interesting.
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greyfaced
Heuristician


Joined: 06 Jun 2008
Posts: 509
Location: Pleroma, Oregon

PostPosted: Wed Feb 11, 2009 2:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

thanks, that was nice. I'm not sure we would have gone into anarchy as he says, but the point is taken that it was bad and people were worried. I get bothered by histrionics.
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greyfaced
Heuristician


Joined: 06 Jun 2008
Posts: 509
Location: Pleroma, Oregon

PostPosted: Sat Feb 14, 2009 7:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

the frontline thing on PBS this week should be pretty good.... Just saying.
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